“We estimate fiscal deficit for FY24 at 5.8-6.0% and FY23 at 6.2%. Muted nominal GDP growth (due to global slowdown and low deflator) will constrain tax revenue and government spending, compared to the strong pace in the last couple of years”, the report said.
Thus, the government’s innovation will be tested – to deliver an effective budget, encompassing capex, rural, social, policy incentives, subsidies, and tax/growth buoyancy. In case the government adopts an easy approach to the fiscal path, across-the-board expansion can be expected and delivered.
In the upcoming budget, we anticipate continued focus on PLI incentives (for new sectors), Atmanirbhar Bharat (to enhance manufacturing, exports, while managing imports), sustainability (supply/demand push towards renewable energy and alternative technologies), and infrastructure expansion (defence, railways, ports, logistics, and roads).
The government wants to encourage the adoption of the new income-tax regime, thus incentivisation is likely, the report said.
Fiscal support to rural India will continue (adjusting for food and fertiliser subsidy); we will be watching for any meaningful stimulus (low probability considering fiscal constraints).